The amount of money laundering not declared to the AFIP finally reached US$115 million. The Government celebrated this “success” over the weekend. Here is an analysis by economists on the impact of the “come clean” on the national economy. On the last working day of last week it was learned that money laundering reached US$115.000 billion. Immediately there were voices of “celebration” from the government and analysis from different professionals.
For example, Marina Dalpoggetto, from Estudio Bein, considered that “the money laundering is a success, since the income until December alone almost doubles the projections that were made when the scheme was announced. If the number closes around US$115.000 billion of externalized assets, the fiscal impact would reach 2 percentage points of the GDP, which are distributed evenly between 2016 and 2017, given the way in which the resources were allocated and the floating debt was cancelled at the end of last year.”
The professional then told Ambito Financiero: “The challenge is to ensure that part of these funds are transferred to the real economy. The most direct channel is provided by closed investment funds (whose operations are still on standby awaiting the capital market law), and which function in practice as a reduction in the cost of funding projects.”
Esteban Domecq, from Invecq Consulting
Meanwhile, Esteban Domecq, from Invecq Consulting, said that “one of the questions is what could happen with the exchange rate.”
“In addition to the final result, since laundering a property worth US$100.000 in Miami is not the same as laundering US$100.000 in a safe deposit box, the final effect of the laundering will depend on its final composition. We will have to see how much of this laundering is from properties in the local market and/or abroad and how much is liquid assets, whether dollars in the mattress or accounts in commercial or investment banks abroad. What is clear is that one of the most important positive effects will be the increase in collections via a greater mass of externalized assets,” he added.
For Federico Semeniuk, from Ecolatina, once the final figures are known, the money laundering can be considered successful, as it will have exceeded even the most optimistic expectations… On the one hand, the great success of the money laundering was due more to the fear of the exchange of financial information than to the rebuilt confidence in the current Government (although this also had a positive effect). On the other hand, the high amount declared is also due to the systematic capital flight of the last decades.”
Camilo Tiscornia, from C&T Economic Advisors
Another person who spoke was Camilo Tiscornia, from C&T Asesores Económicos, who stated, among other things, that a part of these resources could end up financing investment in Argentina, which could favor long-term growth," although "logically, there are assets declared abroad, such as a house in Punta del Este, which will not finance the investment."
“The main problem I see at the moment is that if these resources, which are mostly assets denominated in foreign currency, are exchanged for pesos to take advantage of high local interest rates, they push down the exchange rate and complicate competitiveness,” he added. “A greater demand for government bonds.”
On the other hand, Miguel Zielonka, from Econviews, said that “the greater availability of loans, not only for the public sector, but also for the private sector, is one of the positive factors of money laundering.”
Source: eldiariocba.com.ar
